Young, Ernest. "Politics in the Aftermath of Revolution: The era of Yuan Shih-k'ai, 1912-1916". In The Cambridge History of China, Vol.12, Republican China, 1912-1949, Part 1, edited by John K. Fairbank, 208-255. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983.

Young, Ernest. "Politics in the Aftermath of Revolution: The era of Yuan Shih-k'ai, 1912-1916". In The Cambridge History of China, Vol.12, Republican China, 1912-1949, Part 1, edited by John K. Fairbank, 208-255. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983.

• There are two different historical perspectives of the presidency of Yuan Shikai 袁世凱: either that his autocratic rule replaced the last elements of imperial legitimacy with an equally undemocratic military government which paved the way for warlordism, or that his rule represented the centralizing and forcibly modernizing aspects of contemporary Chinese nationalism and resistance to this force generated factionalism and ultimately collapse (208).
• The Xinhai Revolution first erupted in October 1911, with formal negotiations between imperial and revolutionary forces beginning in December. The main issues between the sides were worked out in January 1912, with the abdication of the Qing Emperor announced on 12 February 1912. Despite compromise on many points, the revolution had succeeded in its two main aims: expelling the Manchus and establishing a republic (209).
• The biggest compromise made in establishing the republican government was the election of Yuan Shikai as president. At the time, Yuan Shikai was leader of Qing military forces and demanded the position in return for securing the abdication of the Qing Emperor. He threatened to restart the civil war should he not be declared president (210).
• Despite his position as a progressive among the Qing court (225), most revolutionaries were deeply uneasy with President Yuan because of his lack of republican sympathies. This was compounded by his refusal to leave Beijing to be confirmed by the legislature in Nanjing, and the composition of his cabinet, which included many military figures, but almost no one with a history of participation in revolutionary activity (210).
• Yuan Shikai agreed to uphold the provisions of the constitutions, but had never fully embraced the ideas of liberalism and representative government. He feared that China was weakened by the factionalism of political parties, especially the domineering politics of the Guomindang (226).
• Compromise had been considered necessary due to both the divided nature of the anti-Qing opposition and the fear of foreign intervention should the civil war intensify. Since it reliably controlled revolutionary forces in only Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Anhui, the Tongmenghui 同盟会 of Sun Yatsen decided to compromise and end the conflict early (211).
• Despite the nationalist goals of the Xinhai Revolution, the collapse of Qing authority led to the separation of many border regions from the new Republic. Native elites in Tibet and Mongolia took advantage of the Revolution is declare independence under British and Russian protection, respectively (210).
• The European powers used their considerable control over Chinese finances to demand greater concessions during the Revolution, arguing that more direct financial control in China was necessary to safeguard investment during a period of turmoil. The Republic granted Europeans rights to directly collect taxes, and all revenues were now stored in European banks where the Chinese government had to request access to their own tax revenues (211).
• The essential nature and composition of the Revolution was essentially conservative, with the landholding gentry dominating the military and civilian offices of the Republic. While lower-class secret societies did play a role in organizing the revolution, they were marginalized after its success. Where radical leaders had seized power in Hunan or Guizhou, they were assassinated or deposed by conservative forces (211-212).
• One of the biggest disagreements among Republican forces in the aftermath of the Revolution was the level of autonomy for the provinces. While Yuan Shikai and some others advocated strong centralized control as an essential element of a strong and modern China, most of the Assembly favored extreme versions of provincial self-rule. The provinces themselves had gained effective autonomy during the Revolution and were unwilling to disband their independent militaries, tax administrations, and local legislatures (212-213).
• President Yuan was able to exercise direct authority only in Shandong, Henan, and Zhili, where he could appoint and remove provincial officials. He was also able to exercise considerable authority in Manchuria, but the provincial government was still mostly independent (214).
• In late 1912, President Yuan did try to appoint civil government officials in other provinces, but his requests were rejected or ignored by provincial governments; the issue was often politicized, with provincial authorities accusing him of interfering in their legitimate internal affairs (227-228).
• Whereas the Republic government had been unsuccessful in establishing its authority over the provinces, the provincial governments were generally successful by the end of 1912 in forcing local or prefecture-level revolutionary assemblies to obey the directions of the provincial government (214).
• The perspective of provincial officials was expressed by Dai Zhitao, a journalist in Shanghai, who argued that the failure of the Qing government had been the forcible centralization of rule, which has impossible due to the size and massive population of China. Instead a government at the provincial level would be 'natural' and allow for the democratic self-governance envisioned by the Revolution (215).
• The first Republican government had Yuan Shikai as President and an old military of his with republican sympathies, Tang Shaoyi 唐绍仪, as Premier. The Tongmenghui failed to garner more than one-third of all seats in the Parliament, with most other seats going to parties and representatives who had switched sides to the Revolution after 1911. The biggest achievement of this government was its veto of any measures for centralized control of the provinces (213).
• Most representatives in the Parliament were civilian officials from the provincial assemblies and officers from the modernized portions of the army. In 1912, twelve of the Chinese provinces were under military governance, with half of these governors having graduated from Japanese military academies. Of the five provinces under civilian control, only Gunagdong, Anhui, and Jiangxi had leadership who participated in the revolution (214).
• The balance between civilian and military authority varied widely by province. In Yunnan, the army established a direct military government without civilian authority, whereas in Hunan the army generally requested and respected the input of the civilian government (214).
• The old Tongmenghui leadership remained deeply respected and was not excluded from the Yuan government. Sun Yatsen was appointed head of railroad development, Huang Xing 黄兴 was general of the southern armies until his resignation in June 1912 in opposition to Yuan Shikai, and Song Jiaoren 宋教仁 joined President Yuan's cabinet (218).
• The representation of Tongmenghui leadership in government declined significantly in June 1912 after the resignation of Premier Tang, over his disputes with President Yuan. Most of the Tongmenghui members followed him out of government, resigning in protest (219).
• The composition of the Tongmenghui changed considerably during this time. The party absorbed five other smaller political parties and reconstituted itself as the Guomindang 國民黨 in August 1912. The party platform dropped many of Sun Yatsen's proposals to become more conservative, dropping issues of land reform, female suffrage, and the abolition of the unequal treaties (219).
• Other factions in the Parliament feared the power of the Tongmenghui, seeing it as in danger of establishing a one-party dictatorship if not stopped. This group included both conservative former Qing officials and revolutionary factions which had opposed the Tongmenghui who feared reprisal. In May 1912, they formed the Republican Party 共和党黨 , although by 1913 they collapsed back into separate parties (221).
• The People's Association 民协 formed around Li Yuanhong 黎元洪, the military governor of Hubei and Vice President, and served as a militarily powerful and political influential opposition to the Tongmenghui (220).
• The main advocates for centralization in Parliament were the Unity Party 統一黨, formed by the republican scholar and philosopher Zhang Binglin 章炳麟 in 1910 after his split from the Tongmenghui. The immense reputation of Zhang Binglin gave the party legitimacy, allowing many former Qing officials to join its ranks and regain legitimacy by adopting the party line of centralization and Chinese nationalism (220).
• A moderate faction of officials who had supported a constitutional monarchy, initially in opposition to republicanism, collected around Liang Qichao 梁啟超 as the Democratic Party 民主黨. It advocated for intense and extreme centralization, including the abolition of the province as an administrative unit (220-221). Because of Liang Qichao's opposition to republicanism, the party was subject to attacks and harassment by the Tongmenghui (222).
• The Revolution had created an intense militarization of government at the provincial level, as governments had conscripted large forces to fight in a conflict which did not materialize. Due to a decline in revenues during the Revolution, provincial governments usually lacked the funds to pay their troops, leading to a build-up of arrears. The inability to pay these arrears prevents provincial governments from disbanding their armies, but continued mobilization only resulted in larger and larger pay arrears (216).
• Despite consistent late payments of soldiers salaries, troops remained loyal for the most part, excepting some short mutinies related to salary arrears. The army either controlled or remained loyal to the provincial government, and was critical to destroying bandits, suppressing rural revolts, and fighting against more radical revolutionary forces (216).
• The Chinese political parties which organized following the revolution drew from experiences of limited provincial self-governance in the last years of Qing rule, the organization of Japanese parties -- where many Chinese politicians had studied -- and the secret political associations established by Sun Yatsen in Hong Kong, Honolulu, and San Francisco (217).
• New elections for a permanent Parliament were held in December 1912, with all men over the age of 21 with an elementary education or minor property holdings being allowed to vote. While this meant that the majority of the male population was eligible to vote, only around 4% to 6% of the total population voted. The new Parliament met in Beijing in April 1913 (223).
• The election process assumed that all former Qing territories remained part of the Republic of China, but the de facto independence of Mongolia and Tibet prevented voting. Instead representatives for Mongolia, Tibet, and the overseas Chinese were appointed by Yuan Shikai (223).
• The Guomindang won a majority of the vote in both houses of the new legislature, its own party membership bolstered by the many independent and unaffiliated parliamentarians. The Guomindang won such a large portion of the vote by appealing to the rural landed gentry, promising a large degree of provincial self-government (223).
• Following their tremendous electoral success, Song Jiaoren, the chief engineer of their electoral victory, began to more actively attack the Yuan government for arbitrary rule and advocate for a fully parliamentary system with a much weaker presidency. On 20 March 1913, he was assassinated in Shanghai by hitmen working for Yuan Shikai (224). 
• Conflict between President Yuan and the Guomindang-dominated parliament began to escalate following the murder of Song Jiaoren, which convinced Sun Yatsen, Huang Xing, and others that President Yuan had to be removed by military force. Actual armed conflict broke out in July 1913 (228-229).
• The military planning of both President Yuan and the Guomindang focused on control of the central rail network of the country between Beijing, Wuhan, and Nanjing. Since President Yuan was in full control of Beijing, both sides focused their efforts on convincing the military governments in Hubei and Jiangsu to ally with their side (229).
• While Vice President Li was originally open to overtures from the Guomindang, which followed up on a proposal of Song Jiaoren to make him president, simultaneous attempts to recruit some of his officers into an anti-Yuan conspiracy was seen as meddling and insubordination. As a result he agreed to start moving in pro-Yuan forces into Wuhan in April, with over 10,000 troops from Beijing arriving in Wuhan by May (229).
• Support for the Guomindang came from either loyal cadres in the three provinces in which they dominated and provincial governments opposed to President Yuan's plans for centralization. Jiangxi, Anhui, and Guangdong formed the core of the Guomindang supporters, with hopes that resentful provincial officials in Hunan, Sichuan, and Fujian would also join the anti-Yuan forces (230).
• By this same virtue, Yuan Shikai was able to claim that the extensive autonomy of the provinces was causing China to linger in a weak and disunified state and capture the support of nationalists in parliament and among some military governors, including those in Yunnan, Hubei, and Sichuan (234).
• Facing the possibility of high military costs in a period of small central government revenue, President Yuan organized a loan with major Western powers. The 'Reorganization Loan', signed on 27 April 1913, gave China £25 million pounds to cover the £15 million pounds of outstanding debt and new expenses in return for full European control over the administration and revenues of the government salt monopoly (231-232). The loan also allowed funds to bribe key provincial officials and military commanders to remain loyal to the Yuan government (235).
• Although recognized as necessary by most government officials, the new loan caused a lot of indignation among Chinese nationalists because of its similarity to the bad financial agreements made by the Qing Empire. The decision of President Yuan to sign the loan without parliamentary approval only heightened tensions (231-232).
• President Yuan faced increasing parliamentary pressure, even following the assassination of Song Jiaoren, threatening his impeachment. To prevent this eventuality, he actively assisted Liang Qichao in bringing together the entire anti-Guomindang opposition into the Progressive Party 进步党, using bribery or threats of physical violence to coerce more parliamentarians into the opposition bloc (232).
• The final buildup of the conflict began in June when President Yuan ordered the dismissal of Li Liejun 李烈鈞, the Guomindang military governor of Jiangxi, followed by the governors of Anhui and Guangdong. Fighting broke out between Li Liejun's forces and Beijing troops on 8 July, with Jiangxi declaring independence from China on 12 July under the leadership of Governor Li (232-233).
• With the outbreak of hostilities, anti-Yuan forces seized Nanjing from its neutral military government under Cheng Dechuan, established frontline positions in Shandong, and unsuccessfully assaulted Shanghai until the navy sided with the Yuan government. Other provinces did not, however, rise in support, and by September the rebellion had been crushed and its leadership -- including Sun Yatsen and other veteran Tongmenghui -- fled to Japan (233).
• The victory of Yuan Shikai in the 'Second Revolution' of 1913 settled some of the remaining disputes from the Xinhai Revolution, establishing the Republic of China as an conservative and illiberal state. The government had accepted a style of nationalism and order-driven bureaucratic authoritarianism which did not value representative democracy, free speech, self-government, or liberal social values (236, 238).
• Seeking to cement his position, President Yuan used bribery and the threat of physical attack by gangs assembled outside the parliament to force the parliament to elect him to a permanent position as president on 6 October 1913. This move entrenched the extensive powers of the presidency versus the parliament (242).
• After the Guomindang was declared illegal in November 1913, Yuan Shikai decided that the rump parliament was no longer useful as a legitimating tool and disbanded it the early months of 1914. All provincial and local assembles were also disbanded during this period (242).
• Censorship was restored in 1914 under central government control, and the security forces were expanded. Chambers of commerce were subject to new regulations, the post office was instructed to monitor the content of letters, and the luggage of railway passengers was searched (243).
• President Yuan took advantage of the exceptional circumstances of the 'Second Revolution' to assert greater military control over China, sending garrisons of the Beiyang Army to all parts of China outside of the extreme south in the aftermath of the rebellion. The six southern provinces were threatened by overwhelming military force, while the rest of China was under military occupation (238).
• The occupation of previously rebellious parts of the country was accompanied by purges and persecution of revolutions. Many were killed on spurious relationships to revolution, with an perhaps tens of thousands being killed between 1913 and 1914. This terror created public resentment against Yuan Shikai (240).
• This military threat was used to restore centralized control from Beijing, with President Yuan now directly appointing civilian officials in the provinces. At the same time, the powers of civilian officials were greatly increased relative to military authorities. He also restored the Qing tradition of prohibiting officials from serving in the province of their birth (238-239).
• The new dictatorship under President Yuan was designed to restore bureaucratic obedience to Beijing, and recreate an effective national administration. An examination system was implemented on the basis of practical bureaucratic knowledge. Corruption was punished extensively, with the Yuan government establishing a court specifically for administrative offenses; other factors were also addressed, with official pensions created to reduced perceived needs for corruption (239).
• The Yuan government would become oddly preoccupied with a bandit group in Henan under the command of a leader known as Bailang 白狼 or 'White Wolf'. The group formed in 1912 out of landless peasants and deserted soldiers, advocating for the restoration of Qing rule and retribution for Yuan Shikai's role in ending the monarchy. Its number swelled during the purges during the military occupation of Henan. (240-241).
• In December 1913, the bandit group attacked soldiers in Anhui, provoking an intensified reaction by the central government. In March 1914, the group marched several thousand men to Shaanxi with the intention of establishing a base in Sichuan on the recommendation of Sun Yatsen. They were stopped by opposition from Gansu, and faced assault by government forces leading to Bailang's death in August. The entire effort had taken the involvement of hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers (241).
• Despite the fact that the parliamentary group of the Guomindang intentionally distanced itself from the 'Second Revolution', Yuan Shikai considered them to a subversive element and a threat. On 4 November 1913, he declared the entire Guomindang tainted by the revolution and declared it an illegal organization (242).
• The program of successful centralization had not resulted in foreign recognition of Chinese strength. Russia and Britain still prevented the reincorporation of Mongolia and Tibet, all foreign powers resisted any renegotiation of loans, railway ownership or treaty ports, and in was during this period that China was forced to concede to Japan's 21 Demands in Manchuria and Shandong (246).
• Yuan Shikai believed that the missing element of foreign respect and domestic support was the lack of traditional imperial authority. Most anti-Qing forces had been anti-Manchu, not republican in nature, and the idea of the republic was still unpopular among the peasantry (246-247). Yuan Shikai also believed that Japan might respect a monarchy enough not to invade China again (248).
• The declaration of the monarchy in December 1915 was almost universally unpopular among politicians, with both the Guomindang leadership abroad and previously loyal groups, like Liang Qichao, in China opposing the decision. While most officials continued to follow orders, there was widespread resentment and little active support for the Yuan government (249).
• In response to widespread dissent and the defection to the opposition of many prior allies in national government, Yuan Shikai abandoned in the monarchy in March 1916. At this point, however, the brief restoration of the empire was only the most recent in a series of political failures domestically and internationally, and its abandonment did not end opposition to the Yuan government (250).
• Throughout the entirety of Yuan Shikai's dictatorship, revolutionary forces organized by Sun Yatsen continued to stage armed attacks in China. Working together with younger men like Chen Qimei 陈其美, Zhu Zheng, and Jiang Jieshi, Sun Yatsen staged the assassination of the military commander in Shanghai, seized a warship in Shanghai in December 1915, and organized an insurgent army in Shandong in 1916 with intense Japanese support (250-251). 
• Open revolt against Yuan Shikai broke out in December 1915 among the military in Yunnan under the command of Cai E 蔡锷, who had conspired with Liang Qichao to remove Yuan Shikai from power. In December 1915, Liang Qichao went to Shanghai to gather support for an anti-Yuan movement, while Cai E returned to his Yunnan and led the his former officers into revolt against Yuan Shikai as the National Protection Army (251-252).
• The National Protection Army issued an ultimatum to Yuan Shikai on 24 December 1915 demanding his resignation. Supported by friendly officials in Guangxi and Guizhou, Cai E invaded Sichuan. He tactically outmaneuvered the Beiyang Army forces in the province, while many of the Sichuanese forces defected to his side (252).
• Support for Yuan Shikai was lukewarm among the government in Sichuan, and a ceasefire was declared in March 1916 as both the governor of Sichuan and the commander of the regional Beiyang Army garrison were willing to negotiate (253).
• The revolt in Yunnan signaled to Japan the weakness of the Yuan government, and the Japanese began making active attempts to remove him from power by funding opposition forces in China (253).
• The end of hostilities in Yunnan and Sichuan in March 1916 led many sympathetic politicians to call for Yuan Shikai's resignations. Ever month from March onward, more governors declared their opposition to the continuation of the Yuan government. He died before the issue was settled on 6 June 1916 (253).
• Since no organized opposition had formed prior to his death, the country splintered into several blocs in June 1916. While Prime Minister Duan Qirui 段祺瑞 succeeded Yuan Shikai as formal leader of the Republic, he lacked authority outside of the area around Beijing and was opposed by other regional political and military factions (254).
• Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Guizhou -- which had never been occupied by the Beiyang Army -- formed a common political line calling for the restoration of the 1912 Constitution and based on the strength of Yunnanese armies (254).
• Feng Guozhang 冯国璋, a commander in the Beiyang Army, formed his own faction among provincial leaders in Nanjing. He opposed the centralization which had occurred during the dictatorship, but also presented himself as an opposition to the revolutionary forces in Yunnan (254).
• Although weaker in authority than the other factions in 1916, a faction was beginning to emerge in Manchuria around the leadership of Zhang Zuolin 张作霖. The region initially remained deeply contested between Zhang Zuolin and Duan Qirui, however (254).