Starr, Frederick S. "Making Eurasia Stable". Foreign Affairs, Vol. 75, No. 1 (1996): 80-92.

 Starr, Frederick S. "Making Eurasia Stable". Foreign Affairs, Vol. 75, No. 1 (1996): 80-92.

• Central Asia is going to be important: it is rich in natural gas, oil, gold, and uranium; it borders China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan; it is the primary route for heroin from Afghanistan into Europe; and it is awash with weapons from the civil wars in Afghanistan and Tajikistan.
• There are three possible trajectories for Central Asia: absorption into the hegemony of an outside power, most likely Russia; collapse into chaos and civil war; or a stable regional order centered around an anchor state.
• The development of an anchor state does not imply that Uzbekistan will become a regional hegemon, which would be universally opposed. Instead, a strong and stable Uzbekistan could allow for mutual cooperation among Central Asian states without having to depend on outside powers. 
• Of the Central Asian republics, only Uzbekistan could serve as an anchor state for a regional order. 
• Kazakhstan is wealthy, flush with oil and natural gas reserves, well governed by Nursultan Nazaybayev, and attractive to foreign investors. However, economic turmoil, lack of industry, ethnic tensions between Kazakhs and Russians, and Nazarbayev's resort to rule by decree make it unlikely to be a major regional player.
•  The Kyrgyz Republic is extremely poor, corrupt, and has intense regional and ethnic divisions that threaten to tear it apart. This all makes it a poor candidate.
• Turkmenistan is rich with natural gas wealth, but it has a tiny population and is likely to be dependent upon outside powers for its security.
• Tajikistan has been destroyed by civil war. State structures barely exist there. It is not able to project stability even in its own country.
• Uzbekistan is large, populous, rich in commodities with high export potential, and has smaller ethnic minorities than other republics, including a less than 10% Russian minority. Uzbekistan has historically been a center of power in the region, both prior to and during Russian colonial rule. It is also the most industrialized of the Central Asian republics and has the highest concentration of educational and scientific institutions. 
• There are still difficulties facing Uzbekistan. First among these are the cotton monoculture and Uzbekistan's preservation of the Soviet leadership.
• The cotton monoculture has contributed to the disappearance of the Aral Sea, one of the world's worst ecological disasters, and other public health issues. It has also left Uzbekistan dependent on food imports.
• The Uzbekistani leadership is retained from the end of the USSR and was fairly conservative and opposed to independence. As a result, many Soviet institutions, including the KGB, have been retained.
• Uzbekistan is not democratic and has no democratic tradition. The author claims that Uzbekistani politics are focused on balancing power clan, family-network, and regional interests
• Under President Islom Karimov, Uzbekistan has pursued a path of slow gradual reform without much regard for human rights or political freedom. Karimov's strategy rests on three pillars: sovereignty, political stability and rule of law, and gradual privatization that supports social wellbeing. 
• Having noticed the threat that foreign energy independence posed to Ukraine's independence, Uzbekistan has prioritized energy independence. To do this, Uzbekistan has built pipelines and reduced domestic consumption, hoping to achieve energy autarky.
• Uzbekistan has also pursued attempts at food independence, transitioning tens of thousands of acres from cotton production to wheat in order to reduce the dependence on food imports. 
• Early on in his rule, President Karimov made it clear that politics in Uzbekistan had certain limits. Islamists, radical reformers, and extreme nationalists are excluded from the political order. Political parties with these positions have been banned. 
• When Uzbekistan declared independence, the regional situation was scary. There were civil wars in Tajikistan and Afghanistan and there was a fear that this insecurity would force a security arrangement with Russia that would turn into subordination to Russia.
• This concern of subordination to Russia has meant that, even though Uzbekistan cooperated with Russia on Tajikistan, they have opposed dual citizenship and the transformation of the Commonwealth of Independent States into a military alliance.
• Uzbekistan inherited a heavily russified officer corps, which was 85% ethnic Russia at the time of independence. As of 1996, the officer corps was 65% ethnic Uzbek. 
• Uzbekistan has developed a separate national road network, has upgraded its Aeroflot fleet to become a regional transit hub, and has invited French companies to break the monopoly of Russian telecoms firms.
•  Uzbekistan's approach to privatization has allow for rapid privatization of small businesses, but Karimov has insisted that privatization of large businesses be delayed until the legal framework for a market economy has been established, a move inspired by Mikhail Gorbachyov.
• In 1992, Uzbekistan ended the system of price controls and privatized most retail stores. Since then, over 54,000 private businesses have been established. 
• The conservative approach to reform is evident in agriculture. Irrigation infrastructure, which is essential to cotton cultivation, is to be kept under state control. Out of fear that the breakup of kolxoz farms could cause social conflict, they are to be transformed into cooperatives rather than broken up into individual holdings. While 40% of farmland is privately owned, land cannot be sold or mortgaged.
• Uzbekistan was pushed out of the ruble zone in 1993, forcing it to adopt its own national currency, the so'm in July 1994. 
• Uzbekistan inherited the Soviet tax system relatively intact and has been able to collect taxes and maintain a relatively low budget deficit. This has made it more attractive to investors and as a recipient of international loans.
• Russia remains the largest foreign presence in Uzbekistan's economy and many experts who left following the collapse of the USSR have since returned. 
• Turkey has often been predicted to play a major role in the Uzbekistani economy, but this is not likely due to Turkey's own economic hardships and the fact that the Uzbeks do not like Turkey's condescending attitude.
• South Korea, Japan, and Germany have all been major investors in Uzbekistan. They have all been involved in establishing factories in Uzbekistan.
• The USA has been slow to become involved in Uzbekistan with the exception of a small number of countries. 
• The USA had previously ignored Uzbekistan or only concentrated on human rights issues, instead engaging on Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic. This may have changed in May 1996, when the State Department recognized Uzbekistan as an "island of stability" in Central Asia.
• Uzbekistan was the only Central Asian state to support the US embargo on Iran proposed in spring 1996.