Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Pikalov, Aleksandr. "Uzbekistan between the great powers: a balancing act or a multi-vectorial approach?". Central Asian Survey, vol.33, no.3 (2014): 297-311.

Pikalov, Aleksandr. "Uzbekistan between the great powers: a balancing act or a multi-vectorial approach?". Central Asian Survey, vol.33, no.3 (2014): 297-311.


  • The variability of Uzbekistan's alliances has been the source of inquiry for a number of international relations scholars, but the current author finds that present theories of alliance-formation are inadequate and that Uzbekistan's alliance structures can best be explained by 'multi-vector foreign policy', whereby the state pursues a number of relationships and realigns itself depending on costs and benefits at a particular moment (298).
    • Bandwagoning doesn't explain the reorientation of Uzbekistan between Russia and the US, nor its continual unwillingness to fully integrate into any alliance structure. That being said, the author applies the concept very poorly (298).
    • Walt's balance of threat does a better job at explaining Uzbekistan's rapprochement with Russia following the Andijon Incident, but it still ignores the domestic factors behind the realignment, which are ultimately necessary to understand Uzbekistani foreign policy (299).
    • Steven David' theory of omnibalancing does a better job at capturing domestic factors, but is still inadequate. The theory states that the regime balances against both external and internal opponents (299). However, the assumption of the theory that the regime doesn't act in the national interests is untrue in the case of Uzbekistan, where leadership genuinely seem to care about the well-being of the nation (300).
  • The author makes claims that foreign policy decision-making in Uzbekistan is entirely concentrated in the hands of Islom Karimov, citing his executive authority in other areas (301).
  • The author has little credibility discussing the topic, as the sources used are old and information is either sensationalist, biased, or out-dated. This includes claims that the Uzbekistani regime boils people alive, or incorrect information about the number of political parties in the republic.
  • Uzbekistani engagement in a number of multilateral and international organizations has help the nation develop connections outside of traditional spheres of influence and prevent entrapment by either the US or Russia (304).
    • Uzbekistan has also pursued economic cooperation with a diverse number of actors to prevent dependence on any single power and thus preserve its independence (305).
  • Uzbekistan's relationship with both Russia and the West provide benefits for Tashkent. Russia has been willing to provide investment, easier visa conditions, and defense against Western cultural imperialism, whereas the US has provided military assistance, and protection from Russian domination. By engaged in multi-vector alliances, Uzbekistan has managed to reap rewards from engagement with both powers (305).
  • Russo-Uzbekistani cooperation was primarily based on concerns for state survival during the uncertain times of the Tajik Civil War. When the war ended, with an unfavorable result for Uzbekistan and Uzbeks, Uzbekistan saw no benefit in continuing cooperation with Russia and joined an anti-Russia alliance, GUUAM, to prevent itself falling into the Russian sphere (306).
  • The American foreign policy directives following the end of the Cold War, which emphasized "respect for democracy and the rule of law, the acknowledgement and enforcement of human rights, and the observance of international law" limited the scope of Uzbekistani-American interaction until the 9/11 terrorist attacks (306).
    • Security cooperation between Uzbekistan and the US was terminated for similar disagreements on human rights and democracy, as Uzbekistan refused to tolerate American pressure to liberalize and democratize. In the context of anti-regime protests in the Kyrgyz Republic and Georgia, this led Uzbekistan to remove all American influence and reorient towards Russia (307).
  • Traditional theories of alignment, meaning those expounded in contemporary realism, fail to explain Uzbekistani foreign policy in regards military alliances and membership in international organizations (308).

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