Mariya Aleksandrova et al. "Rural vulnerability to environmental change in the irrigated lowlands of Central Asia and options for policy-makers: A review". Environmental Science and Policy, Vol.41 (2014): 77-88.

Mariya Aleksandrova et al. "Rural vulnerability to environmental change in the irrigated lowlands of Central Asia and options for policy-makers: A review". Environmental Science and Policy, Vol.41 (2014): 77-88.

• This paper explores the vulnerability of Central Asian irrigated lowlands to climate change, and policy options for mitigating the resulting damages. It uses a number of field-specific terms defined below:
• Vulnerability, the degree to which an environmental system is able to cope with the additional risk factors created by climate change and/or environmental degradation (78).
• Exposure, the presence of people, resources, and valuable institution in regions which may be negatively affected by climate change (78).
• Susceptibility, the predisposition of an ecosystem to be significantly and negatively affected by climate change (78).
• Resilience, the ability of an ecosystem to absorb or recover from the climate change or other harmful environmental events (78).
• Since 60% to 70% of the population of Central Asia lives in irrigated lowland zones, and a high percentage of the population is employed in agriculture, questions of resilience and vulnerability are equally questions of environmental and social abilities to adapt to climate change in conditions of high human exposure (78).
• Xorazm viloyati in Uzbekistan is situated in the Amu Daryo river basin, which is heavily dependent on meltwater from snow and glaciers in the Pamir Mountains and Tien Shan, as it receives only 100ml of water per year (79). These meltwater deposits are therefore critical to the Amu Daryo, as changes affect the quality and timing of the Amu Daryo's waters. The shrinking of these reserves will exacerbate the issue of water scarcity (79, 81).
• The complete dependence of agriculture on the waters of the Amu Daryo, combined with risk factors of low water use efficiency, high salinity of irrigation water, and little cooperation between riparian states, leaves the region very exposed to dangers posed by climate change (81).
• Persistent land degradation, especially in Xorazm, had led to increased susceptibility to climate change factors. This is most represented in the high salinity of groundwater and crop fields resulting from over irrigation and poor Soviet agricultural practices (81).
• Current government policy furthers the salinization and degradation of soil and water quality in the region by strictly regulated the forms of agriculture used, and favoring yield increases over sustainable farming practices. The lack of access to agricultural education or services, and the short-term nature of land tenure, further dis-incentivize farmers from making environmentally conscious decisions (81).
• Lack of fees for water usage further undermine efforts to increase efficiency of water usage in the region. In areas were fees were applied by water user associations, there were collected inconsistently and undervalued (82, 83).
• The domination of agriculture in water usage in Uzbekistan also increases risk factors for the region, where 95% of water is used for agricultural purposes in storage and irrigation conditions marred by low levels of efficiency and high levels of evaporation and waste (81).
• Xorazm has experienced 4 major drought events since 2000, giving a perspective on how the region would deal with future periods of water scarcity caused by climate change (81). Past experience has indicated that agricultural water shortages occurred and were exacerbated by poor warning systems and low levels of public trust in government advisories (82).
• Although alternative types of agricultural land use exist in Uzbekistan, and could be used to prevent degradation of soil quality, experience from drought show that inflexible government demand for cotton and wheat leaves farmers with few options for implementing less harmful agricultural practices (82).
• The authors recommend that the government immediately begin taking steps towards the creation of climate change risk management programs at all levels of government, constructed with support and cooperation from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (82).
• Following severe drought in Xorazm in 2000-2001, the government implemented a number of measures to reduce future risk, including large-scale introduction of water-saving technology -- specifically universalizing drip-irrigation -- developing better water-control institutions, and improving accuracy of drought prediction (82).
• At the national level, responsibility for the prevention of drought is split between the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources, The Centre of Hydro-meteorological Service [Uzhydromet], and state-sponsored agricultural insurance companies (82).
• The primary solution to issues of water scarcity in Xorazm must be solved by decreasing the demand for water resources in agriculture and improving the efficiency of water usage during times of scarcity, both through installing more advanced and efficient methods of irrigation. The benefits of all irrigation systems must be balanced against their cost, because of the low levels of capital available to farmers (82).
• Most important in these reforms is replacing static methods of irrigation with active control measures which allow for specialized targeting of water resources based on times of need. This can greatly decrease water usage with minimal effects on productivity (82-83).
• Methods of water storage can also be greatly improved, as the current practice of using groundwater reserves as a last resort results in flooded them with salinity. The author instead recommends switching between reserves and groundwater in normal irrigation practice and integrating nearby lakes into irrigation planning (83).
• Ultimately an increase in the efficiency of water usage and decrease of societal susceptibility to climate change requires switching to less water-intensive agricultural practices, particularly by diversifying the crop portfolio and allowing divergence in cropping practices (83).
• The reforestation of overly saline areas of cropland is another viable option for increasing the resilience of riparian communities and reversing soil degradation. The production of fruit trees in these areas could also diversify local economies, providing land tenure is guaranteed to farmers are given education on fruit tree cultivation (83).
• The authors also recommend the introduction of conservation agriculture techniques. By rotating crops more frequently, minimizing soil disturbance through tillage, and providing constant ground cover, this form of agriculture reduces soil erosion, protects soil replenishment, and reduces salt content by mitigating dehydration (84).
• "The national administration of Uzbekistan plays a central and active role in the water and agriculture sectors. The current differential crop policies prioritizing cotton for export and wheat to support national food security through elevated levels of subsidies are nevertheless inconsistent with climate change mitigation and adaptation measures" (85).
• To take effective steps towards the implementation of agricultural policies with longterm sustainability, the government of Uzbekistan must decentralize its administration of cropping and land use. The needs and climate conditions of different regions are too diverse for a national plan (85).
• This decentralization program must originally be a transition of decision-making power towards regional and local authorities, as the population and civil society of Uzbekistan is not properly organized enough to assume the role of determining appropriate implementation of the suggested reforms (85).