Diamond, Larry. "Is the Third Wave Over?". Journal of Democracy, vol.7, no.3 (1996): 20-37.

Diamond, Larry. "Is the Third Wave Over?". Journal of Democracy, vol.7, no.3 (1996): 20-37.

• Since the collapse of the Warsaw Pact governments in the late 1980s, the number of democracies in the world has expanded substantially in what has been called "The Third Wave", beginning with the overthrow of fascist juntas in Spain and Portugal and continuing through the collapse of the USSR. However, the success of this wave depends on cementing these democratic gains through substantial reform (20).
• Reaching a definition of the term 'democracy' is essentially is this project. In their earlier research Collier and Levitsky (1996), have identified over 550 'subtypes' of democracy. This paper will deal with electoral democracy, as defined by Schumpeter, and liberal democracy, which involves competition for power through elections, in addition to certain freedoms and civil liberties (21). 
• These definitions, however, raise further questions and grey areas within democracy. How many political rights must exist to be a liberal democracy? To what degree? While people can clearly say Britain is a democracy, issues affect most 'democracies': does the brutality of Indian security forces in Kashmir make Indian illiberal? What about Columbia, does repression of the radical left rule it out of liberal democracy? (22).
• Liberal democracy has the following features: power lies only with elected officials, no shadow state; executive power is constrained; all parties have a chance at creating a government; minority groups are allowed to organize to defend their interests; citizens must be able to organize and express themselves freely; plural media sources must exist; equality under the law for all citizens; rule of law (22-23).
• These characteristics are essentially similar to the criteria used by Freedom House to judge the 'freedom' of countries. Therefore, the ranking produced by this NGO can be used to roughly gauge levels of liberal democracy (23).
• One of the most striking features of the democracies which have appeared from the 'third wave' is the massive gap between electoral democracy and liberal democracy. The vast majority of these new democracies have utterly failed to establish the basic civil liberties and freedoms which create a liberal democracy (23). 
• These democratic states which are not dictatorships, but not full liberal democracies, can be term 'pseudo-democracies' or partial democracies. Importantly, the distinction is that in pseudo-democracies there is a legal opposition party, which does not exist in an autocracy. As such, despite extremely dominance or one party of politicians -- such as in Kenya or Kazakhstan -- these states are still pseudo-democracies (25).
• Despite disappointing caveats, the third wave definitely happened, with the number of electoral democracies increasing from 1974 to the present from 39 -- most of them is small countries with populations under 1 million -- to 117 as of 1996, when this paper was published (26).
• Liberal democracies have also expanded, but at the same rate or with the same success. 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, was a high-water mark for liberal democracy, which has declined since around 1994, especially in the former Soviet Union and Latin America. Even with larger numbers, the stability of liberal democracies seems to be minimal among countries in the 3rd wave (28).
• In Latin America, the trend has been away from both authoritarianism and liberal democracy, with most countries concentrating in a middle class of hybrid regimes. General erosion of the rule of law and massive corruption within the political system mean that only Chile has successfully retained its position as liberal democracy as of 1996 (29).
• Most government now feel a need to participate in elections, but ruling elites to their best to make sure that these competitions remain hollow and non-competitive. This is one of the biggest factors towards the proliferation of pseudo-democratic regimes (30).
• "More and more countries may seek to satisfy the expectation of "democracy" with its most hollow form, pseudodemocracy" (31).
• Strong arguments could be made that this period of third wave expansion will be followed by a 'counter-wave', as the period of democratic stagnation and slow retreat of freedoms is often followed by an actual overthrow of democratic systems. The standard traits of corruption, 'unsolvable' problems, and popular dissatisfaction are all present and represent a chance of authoritarian gains (31).
• However, politics are very different is today's world. Main factors inhibiting the return of authoritarianism are a disbelief in the faith of the military to run the country better than civilians, strong cultural norms upholding democracy even in pseudo-democracies, and lack of a strong anti-democratic ideology like fascism to unite around. Instead, elements within states are likely to hollow out the democratic systems, rather than seize direct control (32).
• The way to avoid a counter-wave of authoritarianism is to strength the legitimacy of current democratic systems. Primarily this should mean ensuring that all members play by constitutional rules. Unquestioning obedience to the constitutional order is the best way forward for creating a political culture of democracy (33).
• The author predicts that the illiberal democracies that have regressed since the third wave will not reach consolidation, because their existence is dependent on using back pathways to subvert actual democratic processes, meaning that increasing illiberalism leads away from state consolidation. If the current state systems want to become consolidated, they must liberalize and institutionalize their rule (34).
• "The overriding imperative for the long-term global advance of democracy is to prevent its near-term recession into a new reverse wave. That encompasses three challenges. First, the new liberal democracies of the third wave must become consolidated (only a few of them have so far). Since consolidation is partly a process of habituation, time is on their side, but only if they can avoid major crises, sink institutional roots, and provide some degree of effective governance. Second, the merely electoral democracies must be deepened and liberalized politically so that their institutions will become more broadly and intrinsically valued by their populations" (35).
• The continued expansion of democracy requires that Western democracies remain strong and robust global forces. The ideological superiority of democracy has succeeded because liberal democracies have provided better and more stable government and expanded their influence. If they can manage to preserve their foundations and if more liberal democracies outside the West become established, then liberal democracy will continue expansion. Otherwise, democracy may come to be seen as an ethnocentric and Western concept to be rejected by the rest of the world (35).