Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Mueller, John. "Is There Still a Terrorist Threat? The Myth of the Omnipresent Enemy". Foreign Affairs, Vol.85 (2006): 2-8.

Mueller, John. "Is There Still a Terrorist Threat? The Myth of the Omnipresent Enemy". Foreign Affairs, Vol.85 (2006): 2-8.

  • It is taken for granted by most security experts that terrorism poses a tremendous risk in an open and interconnected society like the USA, as shown by the 9/11 attacks. The lack of terrorism since 2001 is often explained as a result of the security measures put in place post-9/11, thus justifying those measures (2-3).
    • The improved security explanation fails to hold water considering the dysfunction of the Department of Homeland Security in stopping the 9/11 attacks or in responding to Hurricane Katrina. Moreover, states like Israel with much more advanced security networks still experience more terrorism than the USA (3). 
      • New restrictions on entry to the USA have also likely failed to prevent terrorism, considering the minimal resources required to stage an attack and massive numbers of people that cross the border every day. Additionally, these enhanced border security measures have failed to stop the flow of drugs into the USA, so they likely have not been effective at preventing terrorists or necessary materiel from crossing the border (3).
    • Some have claimed that the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan has disrupted Al Qaeda operations to such a degree that it is no longer able to plan terror attacks against the USA. However, Afghanistan is not a necessary base of operations, as demonstrated by the 2004 Madrid train bombings, carried out by a small group who had never been in Afghanistan (3).
    • Another potential explanation is that the US invasion of Iraq and the Islamist insurgency there has distracted terrorists and concentrated their efforts in that country, leaving them largely uninterested in terrorism elsewhere. Terrorists have still been active in other countries, however, including Turkey, the UK, Morocco, Spain, Egypt, and Jordan (3-4).
    • Some argue that there have not been other major terrorist attacks against the USA since 9/11 because they take so long to plan, but this is not supported by the evidence. Even the 9/11 attacks took only 2 years to plan, and the Madrid train bombings took 6 months. If another attack was coming it would have happened by now (4).
    • The author explains the relative lack of terrorism as a result of very few terrorists existing inside in the USA and most foreign terrorists being unable to plan operations in the USA (2). For example, the 9/11 bombings were planned entirely by foreigners because Al Qaeda had no active members in the USA and likely still does not (5).
      • Massive surveillance and law enforcement operations by the FBI to find Al Qaeda members within the USA have largely failed, producing around 10 suspects, none of whom was an actual Al Qaeda agent. This suggests that there simply aren't Islamic extremist terrorists in the USA (5).
      • Sweeps in foreign countries turned up large numbers of terrorists and those with terrorist sympathies, whereas searches in the USA did not. This leads to the conclusion that there are very few terrorists actually in the USA (7).
  • Some scholars have argued that the USA is well protected from Islamic terrorism because its Muslim community is much better integrated than that in European countries. However, terrorists are often not drawn from the local Muslim community and are instructed to avoid it as to evade surveillance. Moreover, poorly integrated Muslim communities in Germany and Norway have yet to witness terrorism (4).
  • Al Qaeda is likely not trying to launch another 9/11-style attack on the USA because doing so significantly raised the worries of all countries about terrorism. The US reaction to the 9/11 attacks triggered a global crackdown on terrorists that resulted in tens of thousands being imprisoned (6).
    • America has supported and financed crackdowns on terrorists abroad, leading national governments to treat terrorists more harshly and proactively that they did before 2001 (6-7).
  • Most Islamic extremists condemned the 9/11 attacks and thought that they gave jihadis a bad reputation. This can be seen in the difference between the massive flood of jihadists to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan after 1979 versus the tiny number that travelled to Afghanistan in 2001 to fight the Americans (6).
  • The minimal threat actually posed by terrorism in the USA should make us question the necessity of the national security apparatus built after the 9/11 attacks (8).

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