Tuesday, January 12, 2021

McDermott, Roger. "Karimov Gambles on Russia, China, and Germany". Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol.3, no.118 (2006).

McDermott, Roger. "Karimov Gambles on Russia, China, and Germany". Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol.3, no.118 (2006).


  • Since the Andijon Incident, Uzbekistan has been seeking closer ties to Russia and China, but it seems scared of totally alienating the West or falling into the Russian sphere of influence. As a result, Uzbekistan has made suggestions that it might be open to a rapprochement with the West, albeit on Uzbekistani terms.
  • President Vladimir Putin has made clear that Russian engagement with Uzbekistan is primarily security based, and rooted in a publicly stated lack of faith in President Karimov's administration and a fear that Uzbekistan could degrade into another Afghanistan.
  • Uzbekistan has advocated for increased cooperation within the SCO, specifically in improving the capabilities of the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS) and shifting its focus from military confrontation to broader prevention and anti-radicalization initiatives. If anything, Uzbekistan has been disappointed with the lack of organization strength and expected more support for integration from Russia and China.
  • Importantly at these same events, President Karimov accepted a group of German parliamentarians and gave them a spectacular tour of Toshkent. This demonstrates Toshkent's strategy for resuming relations with the West, focusing on increasing ties with its ally Germany and then bidding time until the Andijon Incident is forgotten and the West is willing to resume relations with Uzbekistan.
  • The author believes that the Uzbekistani strategy of leveraging German amiability for broader support from the EU is ludicrous and "reveals how out of touch the regime is with how Western multilateral bodies function". 
    • The hilarious thing is that this strategy totally worked. Uzbekistan continued to be a good partner with Germany and made conciliatory diplomatic gestures towards Western powers until the public forgot the Andijon Incident and security concerned allowed militaries to reopen cooperation with Uzbekistan.

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