Notes on Turkey's Decision to Purchase the S-400 System

 “US gives Turkey ultimatum on Russian missiles”. BBC, 9 June 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48568282

• US SecDef Shanahan gave ultimatum to Turkish MinDef Hulusi Akar that Turkey could not have both American made F35 fighter jets and Russian made S400 A2/AD system. SecDef Shanahan says that Turkey will not receive F35s if it receives S400s.
• US argues that the Russian systems are incompatible with NATO defense systems and pose a security threat.
• Comments by Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Gen. Tod Wolters, indicate that the US fears that purchase of the S400 system could give Russia access to Turkish MinDef and possibly information about specifics of F35 and its vulnerabilities.
• US Undersecretary of Defense, Ellen Lord, said that use of S400 near F35 could supply information that could be used to know more about and potentially counter F35.
• Turkey should instead by the American made Patriot A2/AD system.
• Turkey is an major purchaser of F35, purchasing 100 planes recently and with Turkish manufacturers producing 937 of the plane’s parts.
• Turkey has not yet received any F35s, which are in America while Turkish pilots are trained.
• Senior Turkish diplomat claims that USA did not object to S400 purchase deal until after it was already signed.
• On 4 June 2019, President Erdogan said that Turkey would continue with the S400 deal.
• On 7 June 2019, Sergei Chemezov, head of Russian state defense company Rostec, said that Russia would deliver S400s to Turkey in around 2 months (circa August 2019).

 

David Gauthier-Villars and Alex Leary. “Trump Seeks Resolution with Turkey Over Russian Missile Dispute”. The wall Street Journal, 29 June 2019. https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-says-hes-looking-at-resolving-russian-missile-dispute-with-turkey-11561790067

• Trump seems to support some reconciliation with Turkey, but it remains unclear if he is interested enough to overrule the DoD, which is firm on its stance on the issue.

 

“Pentagon halts deliveries, activities linked to Turkey’s F-35 capability”. Reuters, 1 April 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-turkey-f35-pentagon-idUSKCN1RD369

• On 1 April 2019, the USA suspended all deliveries and activities linked to F35 for Turkey, and will only restore this if Turkey rejects delivery of Russian S400s.

 

Max Erdemandi. President Erdogan is a Threat to U.S. and NATO Security“. Small wars Journal. https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/president-erdogan-threat-us-and-nato-security

• The integration of the S400 into Turkish defense could expose critical information to Russia, currently a strategic adversary of NATO.
• Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlutoglu said that Russia is a strategic partner of Turkey.
• Need to serious consider the possibility that Turkey does not share the same goals as US and NATO and is acting outside the interests of the alliance.

 

Timothy R. Heath. “How China’s New Russian Air Defense System Could Change Asia”. War on the Rocks, 21 January 2016. https://warontherocks.com/2016/01/how-chinas-new-russian-air-defense-system-could-change-asia/

• S400 ‘Triumf’ is also called SA21.
• The S400 has an effective range of 400km, can reportedly track 100 airborne targets and simultaneously engage 6 airborne targets simultaneously. It can allegedly counter stealth aircraft and some varieties of missiles, including cruise missiles.
• Its primary threat is extended A2/AD range and the potential of relatively low cost missiles (millions of $) being able to take down very high cost (hundreds of millions of $) aircraft.

  

“Erdogan: Turkey needs Russia’s S-400 missile defence system”. Al Jazeera, 31 August 2018. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/08/erdogan-turkey-russia-400-missile-defence-system-180831103412006.html

• This occurs during a period of heightened US Turkish tensions, including sanctions against Turkey imposed in August 2018 for its imprisonment of an American pastor allegedly linked to the 2016 attempted coup.
• Turkey has been trying to procure a different air defense system, other than the Patriot, for years. In 2012, Turkey requested and received deployment of NATO Patriots on its border with Syria, but these were withdrawn in 2015 much to Turkish chagrin.
• China, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have already bought S400s, and India plans to.
• Turkey purchased around 100 F35 from the USA in 2014 to replace its fleet of F14 and F16 fighters. Turkey has said that it would consider other fighter jet manufacturers if the USA disrupted the purchase.

 

Can Kasapoglu. “why Turkey might buy Russia’s S-400 defence system”. Al Jazeera, 24 March 2017. https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/03/turkey-buy-russia-s400-missile-defence-system-170323131537509.html

• Turkey has sought to acquire an independent long range missile defense capacity for years, as it is currently dependent on NATO deployments.
• In 2013, Turkey tried to buy HQ9 missile defense systems from China but this was dropped over objection by NATO, especially since it had chosen the system over the American made Patriot, and the Franco Italian made SAMP/T Aster30.
• The US Patriot bid did not include technology transfer options, frustrating Turkish ambitions in missile production.
• There are some hopes that a purchase of S400s will result in technology transfer to Turkey, allowing them insights into missile technology.
• The purchase of S400s might give Russia access to valuable information about NATO capacities.
• The S400 system would not be integrated into the rest of Turkey’s NATO infrastructure or combined operations, although it is likely that Turkey would retain its X band radar in Kurecik within NATO.
• The plan is thus for the S400 acquisition to be a national defense policy outside of NATO operations and interoperability.
• Turkey is not the only NATO country that has Russian made defense systems: Slovakia and Greece both operate S300s.
• This was less of a problem before the annexation of Crimea and heightened Russo American tensions.
• Turkish use of the S400 system in NATO exercise, as Slovakia and Greece have with the S300 system, could potentially give NATO insight into the function and vulnerabilities of the Russian made system.

  

Burak Ege Bekdil. “Shaking hands with the Russians’: Erdogan sole decision-maker on S-400 deal”. DefenseNews, 30 July 2018. https://www.defensenews.com/smr/space-missile-defense/2018/07/27/shaking-hands-with-the-russians-erdogan-sole-decision-maker-on-s-400-deal/

• Presidential aide claims that President Recep Erdogan is sole decision maker about S400 deal with Russia and that traditional defense bureaucracy has been sidelined to political considers lead by Erdogan.
• This was done through reorganization of bureaucracy, with the ‘Undersecretariat for Defense Industries’ now being under the presidency rather than the Minister of Defense.
• An official from the procurement office said that “It remains a political issue rather than a procurement issue. President Erdogan does not understand why Turkey’s NATO allies should be worried over the deployment of a non-NATO, defensive, not-offensive, system. Unless … of course Turkey’s NATO allies think of attacking Turkey one day.”
• Turkey confirmed that contract for sale and deployment of S400 in Turkey had been finalized in late December 2017. It delivered an advanced payment and created a financing plan at this meeting.
• This contract is for the purchase of 1 S400 system (for ~2.5 billion $), with an option to purchase a second one, with a commitment to joint development and cooperation on the technology. Delivery is scheduled for Q1 of 2020.
• Turkey plans to operate S400 independent of NATO forces and to develop its own source code identification system. President Erdogan is interested in Turkey gaining technological know how from this acquisition.
• In 2017/2018 Aselsan and Roketsan, two Turkish state owned defense companies, were in discussions with Eurosam about joint production of SAMP/T, a European SAM system.
• The USA has repeatedly tried to get Turkey to purchase the Patriot SAM system, but it was passed over in both 2013 and 2017. The US is still tried to push that system.
• In July 2018, NATO official warned of vague consequences if Turkey purchased S400s.

  

“Pompeo warns Turkey About Buying Russian S-400 Missile System”. Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 27 April 2018. https://www.rferl.org/a/pompeo-warns-turkey-about-purchase-of-russian-s-400-missile-system/29196661.html 

• On 27 April 2018, US SecState Mike Pompeo warned Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu that the S400 would not be integrated with allied NATO systems. He also threatened sanctions.

 

Aaron Mehta. “NATO Official: Turkey faces ‘consequences’ if purchase of S-400 completed”. DefenseNews, 25 October 2017. https://www.defensenews.com/land/2017/10/25/nato-official-turkey-faces-consequences-if-purchase-of-s-400-completed/

• General Petr Pavel, chairman of NATO Military Committee, said on 25 October 2017 that Turkish purchase of S400 would mean it was excluded from any integrated NATO air defense system.
• Turkey announced its decision to purchase the S400 over alternative SAM system in September 2017.
• Already, by October 2017, some NATO allies were worried about the potential of the S400 to gather compromising information about F35s operating in the country.

 

 Shawn Snow. “Turkish state media boasts about new missile, ability to shoot down US aircraft”. DefenseNews, 20 September 2017. https://www.defensenews.com/flashpoints/2017/09/20/turkish-state-media-boasts-about-new-missile-ability-to-shoot-down-us-aircraft/

• On 20 September 2017, Turkish state news agency, Anadolu Agency, tweeted an infographic about S400’s abilities, including listed several American planes that it could shoot down.

 

“Turkey signs deal to get Russian S-400 air defence missiles”. BBC, 12 September 2017. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41237812

• By 12 September 2017, Turkey had signed a deal with Russia for the purchase of S400 system. President Erdogan said a deposit (amount unclear) had been paid.
• NATO officials said that they had not been informed of the details of the S400 purchase.
• Russia has been deliberately provocative over sale of S400 to Turkey, with Vladimir Kozhin, military advisor to President Putin, saying that the reaction of Western countries to Turkish acquisition of S400 was understandable.
• The acquisition of the S400 system is seen as a reaction to the withdrawal of NATO Patriot system from the Turko Syrian border in 2015 over Turkish objections.
• Other areas of tensions have been rising political disputes with Germany, that led to Germany halting arms exports to Turkey, and American refusal to extradite Fethullah Gulen to Turkey for his alleged role in the failed 2016 coup.
• Cyprus at one point also operated a Russian made S300 system.

  

Dorian Jones. “US-Turkey Tensions Escalate Over Russian Missiles”. Voice of America, 12 June 2019. https://www.voanews.com/europe/us-turkey-tensions-escalate-over-russian-missiles

• US SecDef Shanahan laid out a detailed timetable for Turkey’s exclusion from purchase AND production of F35s if it buys the S400 system.
• SecDef Shanahan says that S400 would compromise the stealth capabilities of the F35.
• In March 2019, President Trump and President Erdogan had a phone call and alleged to have resolved the issue by setting up a joint commitment to investigation security concerns about S400 purchase.
• President Erdogan is increasingly dependent on the hope that personal negotiations with Trump can provide a solution, which he hopes to achieve at the G20 summit on 28 and 29 June 2019.
• Soli Ozel, an IR expert at Kadir Has University, predicts that President Trump with be unwilling to disagree with the DoD and Congress over Turkey and that President Erdogan’s gambit will thus fail.
• In April 2019, DoD announced that it was suspending the training of Turkish pilots on the F35.
• Turkey reports that many US actions, including this suspension of training, took it by surprise and were unexpected.
• US Congress members have threatened that Turkey could be subject to sanctions under CAATSA, which specifically prohibits significant Russian defense purchases. This could serious damage the already weak Turkish economy.
• Huseyin Bagci, an IR professor at Middle East Technical University, says that Turkey refuses to back down because for President Erdogan, his honor is on the line after personally promising President Putin to purchase the S400.
• Another important factor is the threat of economic retaliation from Russia. Russian sanctions against Turkey after the shooting down of a Russian aircraft in 2015 cost Turkey an estimated $17 million.

 

Reuters. “US Starts ‘Unwinding’ Turkey from F-35 Fighter Jet Program”. Voice of America, 7 June 2019. https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-starts-unwinding-turkey-f-35-fighter-jet-program

• On 7 June 2019, SecDef Shanahan sent out letter to Turkish MinDef laying out the timeline for Turkey being excluded from the F35 program, including the USA halted training for Turkish pilots on F35.
• Turkish pilots currently training on the F35 at Luke AFB and Eglin AFB will continue training until the end of July 2019, when they will be returned to Turkey.
• On 22 May 2019, Turkish MinDef Hulusi Akar said that Turkish military was receiving training in Russia on operation of S400.
• On 4 June 2019, President Erdogan said that Turkey would not cancel the deal with Russia and that the USA had still not provided an offer as good as that of the S400.
• The threat of US sanctions on Turkey has already contributed to a deteriorating financial market, with the Turkish lira losing 10% of its value versus the US dollar in 2019.
• Kathryn Wheelbarger, Assistant SecDef, said that the deployment of the S400 system was a security risk and that it was inconceivable that Russia would not use this as an opportunity to gather intelligence to be used against the F35 in the future.

  

Dorian Jones. “Hopes Rise on Averting Turkish-US Crisis Over Russian Missiles”. Voice of America, 30 May 2019. https://www.voanews.com/europe/hopes-rise-averting-turkish-us-crisis-over-russian-missiles

• Alongside the phone call between Trump and Erdogan on 29 May 2019 that created a joint committee to look into security threats posed by Turkish operation of the S400, President Erdogan released Serkan Golge, a US citizen, that same night.
• State Department spokesman, Morgan Ortagus, said that Turkish purchase of S400 system would trigger the activation of CAATSA sanctions against Turkey.
• Huseyin Bagci, professor at Middle East Technical University, says that politics in Turkey is still influenced by faction in the leadership that believes that 2016 coup attempt was an American plot and thus want to pivot away from the USA, who they see as an enemy.

 

“Erdogan Tells of Two Missile Defense Deals with Russia”. Voice of America, 18 May 2019. https://www.voanews.com/world-news/europe/erdogan-tells-two-missile-defense-deals-russia

• On 18 May 2019, President Erdogan said that purchase of S400 would continue and that Turkey would jointly produce the S500 system with Russia.
• President Erdogan also claim, sometime during May, that Turkey had carried out technical research and found that American concerns were unsubstantiated.
• Another quote from Erdogan: “They [the U.S.] are passing the ball around in the midfield now, showing some reluctance. But sooner or later, we will receive the F-35s. [The U.S.] not delivering them is not an option.”

 

Jack Detsch. “Turkey makes cases to Congress to drop S-400 sanctions”. Al-Monitor, 26 June 2019. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/06/turkey-case-congress-drop-s400-sanctions.html

• In May 2019, Serder Kilic, Turkish envoy to USA, asked Congress to exempt Turkey from CAATSA sanctions due to its purchase of the S400 system.

 

Phil Stewart and Humeyra Pamuk. “U.S. to stop training Turkish F-35 pilots because of Russia deal: sources”. Reuters, 6 June 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-turkey-f35-exclusive-idUSKCN1T802O 

• In June 2019, the DoD said that discussions were taking place for the potential sale of American made Patriot SAM systems to Turkey rather than the S400.

  

Ezgi Erkoyun. “Turkey says it has already bought Russian S-400 defense systems”. Reuters, 12 June 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-usa-security/turkey-says-it-has-already-bought-russian-s-400-defense-systems-idUSKCN1TD0ZH

• Quote from President Erdogan: “Turkey has already bought S-400 defense systems. It is a done deal.”
• As of 6 June, no progress has been made on the proposed joint working group addressing American security concerns about the S400 system.

 

Daren Butler and Maria Tsvetkova. “Russia plans to deliver missiles to Turkey in July; U.S. takes dim view”. Reuters, 11 June 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-turkey-security-missile/russia-plans-to-deliver-missiles-to-turkey-in-july-u-s-takes-dim-view-idUSKCN1TC1T0

• The USA has set its own deadline of 31 July 2019 for Turkey to cancel its receipt of the S400 system, regardless of actual delivery date.
• On 10 June 2019, US House of Representatives passed a resolution condemning the purchase of the S400 and urged the application of CAATSA sanctions against Turkey.
• Turkey responded to this with a very angry letter claiming the decision was ‘unfair’ and ‘unfounded’.
• Fitch, a credit ratings agency, said that US sanctions on Turkey would have a significant impact on the value of the Turkish lira.

  

Jack Detsch and Amberin Zaman. “US denies willingness to talk over S-400 concerns with Turkey”. Al-Monitor, 31 May 2019. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/05/us-turkey-talk-concerns-s400-working-group.html 

• Already by 31 May 2019, US officials disputed the narrative issued by Turkey about the phone call on 29 May between President Trump and President Erdogan providing a solution to issues over the S400.
• DoD said that American concerns over the deployment of the S400 in Turkey “cannot be mitigated.”

 

Aaron Stein. “The Day After S-400: The Turkish-American Relationship will get worse”. War on the Rocks, 23 May 2019. https://warontherocks.com/2019/05/the-day-after-s-400-the-turkish-american-relationship-will-get-worse/ 

• Turkey was originally meant to receive the first batch of F35 fighters in November 2019.
• Congress has since blocked all plans for the transfer of F35s to Turkey until the issue of the S400 missiles is addressed.
• The current plan for the delivery of the S400 appears to be that around 100 Turkish soldiers will go to Russia to train on the system and actually begin operating it by July 2019, with the system being delivered to Turkey in October 2019.
• Any diplomatic solution to the dispute will be difficult because of the proximity of the transfer date and the fact that Turkish soldiers have already begun training on the system. This means that it likely cannot pause long enough to address American fears.
• President Erdogan has announced that Turkey will jointly produce the S500 system with Russia, although Sergei Chemezov, head of Rostec, has only said that his firm would consider such a request, as well as a Turkish request to conduct technology transfer on the Su57 fighter jet.
• Russian security services apparently are strongly opposed to both of these plans because of the potential of important production secrets being shared with a NATO member.

 

Seth Frantzman. “Russia’s Kuestionable S-400 Turkey Deal”. The National Interest, 29 April 2019. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-questionable-s-400-turkey-deal-55022

• Russia and Turkey were already in negotiations about the purchase of the S400 by late 2016 and signed the contract in September 2017.
• Ownership of the S400 system will allow for immense Turkish force projection along the Syrian border to the detriment of the Kurdish militias and to the protection of Turkish aligned FSA forces in N. Syria.

  

Kyle Rempfer. “Here’s how F-35 technology would be compromised if Turkey also had the S-400 anti-aircraft system”. AirForceTimes, 5 April 2019. https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-military/2019/04/05/heres-how-f-35-technology-would-be-compromised-if-turkey-also-had-the-s-400-anti-aircraft-system/ 

• The S400 system could be used to gather intelligence on how the F35 operates; because they manufacture and operate the system, this information could potentially end up in Russian hands.
• The S400 system might be hacked or intentionally compromised by Russians, giving them access to important and classified information about the F35 and other NATO aircraft.
• The specific danger is that F35s use a system called Link 16 to share tactical pictures in real time with naval and ground assets. It also uses a IFF system to identify friendly and hostile aircraft. To operate alongside the S400, these F35 systems would have to be integrated and shared with the S400, potentially compromising them.
• Access to this information could potentially allow for access to encrypted Link 16 codes and information about the F35’s stealth systems that could allow them to be countered.
• On 5 April 2019, Turkey rejected a last minute American offer to purchase the Patriot SAM system as an alternative to the S400.
• Turkey has objected to the American stance of its S400 purchase by citing Greece’s possession of the Russian made S300 system. However, this system was purchased in the 1990s, before Russian reemerged as a strategic adversary to the USA, and Greece does not plan to purchase or operate F35s. Moreover, there are doubts that the S300 has the tracking algorithms and computing power necessary to glean substantial amounts of information about the F35.
• Rick Berger, a defense budget and military acquisition researcher at AEI, says that Turkey still seems to believe that the USA is bluffing and won’t really go through with its threats.
• Cancelling the F35 program and deteriorating relations with Turkey would impose significant costs on the USA, including forcing it to base US forces elsewhere in the Middle East, particularly Jordan and the Gulf monarchies. It would also force the USA to find alternative suppliers for a number of F35 components.

 

Jack Detsch. “Pentagon nixes Turkish offer to address S-400 fears”. Al-Monitor, 4 April 2019. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/04/pentagon-nixes-turkey-offer-address-s400-fears-cavusoglu.html

• By 4 April 2019, DoD firmly rejects Turkish proposal to have a joint working group to address American security concerns regarding the S400.

 

Aaron Mehta. “Trump may ‘take care’ of F-35, S-400 issue, Turkish official claims”. DefenseNews, 3 April 2019. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/04/03/trump-may-take-care-of-f-35-s-400-issue-turkish-official-claims/

• On 4 April 2019, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, said that Turkey did not see the S400 as choosing between NATO and Russia, and thought Turkey shouldn’t have to choose to curtail relations with Russia.
• He also claimed that President Trump has indicated that F35 sales might continue anyway, despite DoD statements to the contrary and the stopping of transfer of F35 parts to Turkey on 1 April 2019. He also made several other statements on 4 April 2019 that seemed to indicate he believed that the F35 would eventually resume.
• Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said that the S400 system doesn’t need to be integrated with NATO because it is only for national use for defending Turkish airspace from missiles that are possessed by nearly every other Middle Eastern country.
• Quote from Cavusoglu: “This is an urgent need of Turkey. We need air defense systems urgently… because of the traffic in the neighborhood. Everybody has missiles in the neighboring countries, in Syria, in others. NATO is not capable enough to cover our airspace yet.”

 

Joe Gould. “Turkey’s marriage of F-35 and S-400 ‘absolutely unsustainable,’ says EUCOM nominee”. DefenseNews, 2 April 2019. https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/04/02/turkeys-marriage-of-f-35-and-s-400-absolutely-unsustainable-says-eucom-nominee/

• The first deliveries of the F35 was originally supposed to happen in June 2019, with 2 aircraft being delivered to Turkey. This has obviously been cancelled.

  

Bradley Bowman and Andrew Gabel. “S-400 or F-35? Turkey’s Erdogan Must Choose”. Breaking Defense, 1 April 2019. https://breakingdefense.com/2019/04/s-400-or-f-35-turkeys-erdogan-must-choose/

• Potential access to the S400 systems means that Russia would have the opportunity to simulate detecting F35 fighters, decreasing the strategic edge that these fighters are meant to create for the USA in confrontations with Russia.
• There is also a possibility that this information could then be shared by Russian intelligence with other adversaries of America, like the Chinese.

 

Valerie Insinna. “No ‘devastating impact’ to F-35 industrial base if Turkey removed from program, says US Air Force official”. DefenseNews, 4 December 2018. https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/12/04/no-devastating-impact-to-f-35-industrial-base-if-turkey-pushed-from-program-air-force-official-says/

• Senior USAF official said on 4 December 2018 that Turkey could be entirely removed from the F35 program with minimal impact on the industrial base of the program. These comments were echoed by Heidi Grant, USAF Deputy Undersecretary for Int’l Affairs.
• In October 2018, Turkish MinDef Hulusi Akar expressed disappointed with US and European SAM system and continued to express preference for S400.

 

Aaron Mehta. “Pentagon warns of ‘grave consequences’ should Turkey buy Russian missile system”. DefenseNews, 8 March 2019. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/03/08/pentagon-warns-of-grave-consequences-should-turkey-buy-russian-missile-system/

• DoD said on 8 March 2019 that if Turkey continues with purchase of S400, that it would suffer consequences including being blocked from purchase of F35 and Patriot systems.
• The F35 threat has been reinforced, but State Department cleared Turkey for purchase of Patriot in December 2018.
• Turkish MinDef Hulusi Akar said that the USA not giving F35 to Turkey would be illegal and that he was certain a solution could be found.
• By March 2019, the DoD launched a study into how to remove Turkey from the F35 industrial and manufacturing program.

 

Paul McLeary. “Despite US Threats, Another Ally Mulls Russia’s S-400”. Breaking Defense, 5 March 2019. https://breakingdefense.com/2019/03/despite-us-threats-another-ally-mulls-russias-s-400/

• Turkish officials continue in March 2019 to complain that the Patriot system is too expensive and that are looking forward to the delivery of their preferred system, the S400.
• USA has threatened to remove Turkish access to both F35 and Patriot systems.
• Former SecDef Jim Mattis had asked Congress in 2018 to let him and the State Department issue CAATSA waivers to strategic allies, especially India, Vietnam, and Indonesia, but he’s out of power now.

 

Tara Copp. “Pence: ‘we will not stand idly by’ as Turkey purchases S-400”. MilitaryTimes, 16 February 2019. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2019/02/16/pence-we-will-not-stand-idly-by-as-turkey-purchases-s-400/

• The USA originally set a 15 February 2019 deadline for Turkey to cease the purchase of the S400 system, after which the sale of the Patriot system to Turkey would be terminated.

 

Yarno Ritzen. “why do countries want to buy the Russian S-400?” Al Jazeera, 8 October 2018. https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/countries-buy-controversial-russian-400-181007205808578.html

• The S400 is one the world’s most advanced air defense systems, on par with any Western system. It is also highly mobile, as it can be packed up and redeployed within minutes. It can be reconfigured to deal with long range, medium range, and short range ballistic threats.
• The big worry about Turkish acquisition of the S400 is that Russian maintenance personnel would have access to data about NATO aircraft and capabilities gleaned from the S400’s surveillance and detection systems.
• CAATSA was only created in 2017 in response to alleged Russian interference in American elections; it did not exist in 2016.

 

Malik Ayub Sumbal. “US coercion will not stop Turkey from S-400 purchase”. Daily Sabah, 12 July 2019. https://www.dailysabah.com/op-ed/2019/07/12/us-coercion-will-not-stop-turkey-from-s-400-purchase 

• Turkish officials seem confident that the USA will not actually impose sanctions on them and that, at some level, the USA sees their choice as legitimate.
• President Erdogan claimed that the USA would not impose CAATSA sanctions on Turkey following a meeting with President Trump at the G20 Summit.

 

“Greece Test S-300 Missile For First Time”. Defenseworld.net, 16 December 2013. https://www.defenseworld.net/news/9642/Greece_Test_S_300_Missile_For_First_Time#.XSfSApNKjeQ

• Greek acquired their S300 system in 1999, having been originally purchased by Cyprus in the mid 1990s and transferred to Greece following objections by Turkey against Cypriot operation of the system.
• The Greeks didn’t even get around to test firing the S300 system until 2013.

 

Mehmet Alaca. “Russian S-300 used by 3 NATO member countries”. Anadolu Agency, 11 April 2019. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/russian-s-300s-used-by-3-nato-member-countries/1449436

• Turkey (through the Anadolu Agency) says that the S300 shouldn’t be treated different than S400 and that Greece, Bulgaria, and Slovakia all operate the S300.
• Cyprus purchased the S300 system from Russia in 1996 following escalations over the Kardak islands in the Aegean between Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus.
• The S300 was never deployed to Cyprus due to Turkish objections and was instead deployed on Crete in 1998.
• The USA actually purchased an S300 system 1994 to examine its functions and used it to develop and refine their own Patriot system.

  

“Slovakia Confirms Interest in Russian S-300 Missile Defense Systems”. Defence-blog.com, 3 June 2015. https://defence-blog.com/news/slovakia-confirms-interest-in-russian-s-300-missile-defense-systems.html

• Slovakia continues to operate S300 systems and still plans to keep modernizing the system, or did in June 2015.

 

“Slovak soldiers use S-300 system for the first time in Bulgaria”. Ministry of Defence of the Slovak Republic, 27 August 2015. https://www.mod.gov.sk/35619-en/slovenski-vojaci-historicky-prvykrat-strielali-ostrymi-zo-systemu-s-300/

• Slovakia acquired the S300 system in 1991, meaning that it was a handover from the Czechoslovak armed forces.

 

Gordon, Michael R. “Greek Cypriots To Get Missiles From Russians”. New York Times, 29 April 1998, pp. A1 & A3.

• Both Turkey and the USA objected to the delivery of the S300 system to Cyprus, fearing that it would inflame regional tensions. The USA repeated tried, and failed, to block the sale to Cyprus.
• Turkey had threatened possibility military action in retaliation to the deployment of the S300 on Cyprus. It also stopped and searched Russian and Ukrainian ships passing through the Black Sea.
• The only American worry about Russia in 1998 was that Russia didn’t care enough about its weapons exports potentially causing conflict.
• Many, especially the Turks, suspect that purchasing the S300 system was a response by Greeks to Greece’s retreat from the Kardak islands in 1996.

 

“Our View: A bit of honesty is in order when it comes to the S-300s”. Cyprus Mail, 30 August 2017. https://cyprus-mail.com/2017/08/30/view-bit-honesty-order-comes-s-300s/

• The USA, EU, and UK were all strongly opposed to Cypriot purchase of the S300 in 1998. The Costas Simitis government in Greece also warned Cyprus not to deploy the system.

 

“Cyprus Transfers Controversial Russian S300 Missiles to Greece”. The National Herald, 21 December 2007. https://www.thenationalherald.com/10893/cyprus-transfers-controversial-russian-s300-missiles-to-greece/ 

• On 19 December 2007, Cyprus and Greece finally signed an agreement formalizing the 1998 transfer of S300s from Cyprus to Greece. In exchange, Cyprus received TOR M1 and SUZANA systems purchased by Greece.
• Prior to this, the S300 system had been officially owned by Cyprus, but stored on Crete.

  

“Erdogan: No step back from S-400 deal with Russia”. Al Jazeera, 4 June 2019. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/erdogan-step-400-deal-russia-190604063857003.html

• Turkey said that an original American refusal to sell Patriot systems to Turkey was a factor in them choosing S400, as was Russian agreement to technology transfer.
• Kathryn Wheelbarger, US Asst. SecDef, said that even if Trump government didn’t want to punish Turkey it would be forced to by Congress.

 

Anadolu Agency. “Trump: S-400 tension Obama’s fault, not Turkey’s”. Hurriyet, 29 June 2019. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/trump-on-s-400-nato-member-turkey-not-treated-fairly-144560

• Trump blamed the current F35 and S400 crisis in Turkey on the decision of the Obama administration to forbid the sale of Patriot systems to Turkey.
• US pastor Andrew Brunson, accused of involvement in the 2016 coup attempt, was released from Turkish prison in October 2018.
• Trump seemed to support the Turkish position (or at least give the Turks hope) by saying that Turkey had been treated unfairly during the whole controversy over the S400 system.
• President Trump did not rule out the possibility of CAATSA sanctions against Turkey in the event of its purchasing the S400 system.

“QA-48, 10 July 2019, Statement of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Hami Aksoy, in Response to a Question Regarding the Statement of the Spokesperson of U.S. Department of State, Mrs. Morgan Ortagus, on July 9 about the procurement of Turkey’s S-400 air defense system”. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 10 July 2019. http://www.mfa.gov.tr/sc_-48_-abd-db-sozcusunun-s400-tedarigimize-iliskin-aciklamalari-hk-sc.en.mfa

• The line of the US State Department hasn’t changed since the G20 summit and they still threaten total end of F35 program and CAATSA sanctions.
• Turkish ForgeinMin issued statement that it thinks the friendly meeting between President Trump and President Erdogan at the G20 meeting in Osaka in late June 2019 has somehow changed things.
• Quote from official statement: “The statement made by the US State Department spokesperson on July 9th regarding our procurement of the S-400 air defense system does not conform with the content and spirit of the meeting between the two Presidents at the G20 Summit. The conditions that led Turkey to procure S400 are well known. President Trump confirmed this at the G20 Summit and made it clear that our country was not fairly treated.”

 

“Turkey confirms Russia S-400 missile deal, ignores US warning”. Deutsche welle, 12 June 2019. https://www.dw.com/en/turkey-confirms-russia-s-400-missile-deal-ignores-us-warning/a-49168150-0

• President Erdogan said in early June 2019 that he would try to discuss the F35 issue with President Trump over the phone, as well as the later meeting at the G20 meeting in Osaka on 28 June 2019, and that he could thus persuade the USA to reverse its cancellation of the F35 program.

  

Semih Idiz. “Pleasantries aside, can Trump deliver what Erdogan wants?”. Al-Monitor, 8 July 2019. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/07/turkey-united-states-s400-trump-erdogan-meeting-sanctions.html

• Turkey clearly sees the meeting with Trump at the G20 summit in Osaka as a huge success during which President Trump indicated that he supported their side.
• Turkey interpreted President Trump’s understanding and explanation of their side of the issue as a huge win. Turkish media claims that President Trump said that he would find a way around sanctions, a claim disputed by the USA.
• The Turkish overreaction to these remarks is seen in Kurtulus Tayiz, commentator for pro government newspaper Aksam, who claimed that after President Trump’s comment, any future DoD attempt to block the purchase would be seen as illegitimate.
• President Erdogan said during the G20 summit that Turkey will continue with their purchase of the Russian made S400 system and that delivery should commence by 10 July 2019.
• Senator Lindsey Graham said that not only have Turkey’s wrongly reported President Trump’s approach to sanctions, but also do not understand that Congress still has the power to impose CAATSA sanctions and will do so.

 

Stephen Bryen. “Russia’s S-400 is way More Dangerous Than You Think”. The National Interest, 18 January 2018. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russias-s-400-way-more-dangerous-you-think-24116

• Egypt is also thinking about purchasing the S400 in 2017, already operating the variant S300VM. Saudi Arabia agreed to purchase the S400 in late 2017.
• The S400 support four different missile varieties: the super long range 40N5E, long range 48N6, medium range 9M96E2, and short range 9M96e.
• The Patriot system only supports one short to medium range missile. The USA does not field any true competitor to the S400.
• The S400 with 9M96E2 missile can supposedly target objects as low as 5 meters off the ground, and can target low flying aircraft and cruise missiles.
• Some S400 missile arrays may also be able to target ballistic missiles, although these capacities are largely untested.
• The S400 was built to specifically target modern stealth aircraft like the F22 and F35.

 

 “Turkey warns US to avoid steps that harm ties over S-400 missile defense system”. The Times of Israel, 10 July 2019. https://www.timesofisrael.com/turkey-warns-us-to-avoid-steps-that-harm-ties-over-s-400-missile-defense-system/

• President Erdogan said after the G20 summit that he was confident that Turkey would not face CAATSA sanctions for its purchase of the S400 system.
• The US position has remained the same and the 31 July 2019 deadline to terminate the S400 deal or face the cancellation of the F35 program remains in place.

 

Lolita Baldor. “US warns Turkey it faces sanctions if it buys Russian missile defense system”. The Times of Israel, 27 June 2019. https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-warns-turkey-it-faces-sanctions-if-it-buys-russian-missile-defense-system/ 

• On 26 June 2019, US SecDef Mark Esper met with Turkish MinDef Hulusi Akar to tell him that Turkey will see the termination of the F35 program and CAATSA sanctions if it continues with the purchase of S400s.
• At the meeting, SecDef Esper said that Turkey could still reverse course up until the date when it takes possession of the S400 system.
• On 27 June 2019, President Erdogan said that he didn’t think that the USA would impose sanctions on Turkey based on his discussions with President Trump.
• The training of Turkish personnel on the S400 is complete and delivery of the S400 should take place by 15 July.

  

Ryan Browne, Nick Paton walsh, and Kara Fox. “Russia starts delivery of S-400 missile system to Turkey, setting up standoff with US”. CNN, 12 July 2019. https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/12/europe/turkey-russia-missiles-intl/index.html

• First shipment of S400 equipment has arrived in Turkey on 12 July 2019 at Murted Air Base. There are expected to be too more shipments to arrive by the end of August 2019.
• Around 20 Turkish soldiers are trained on the S400 system and more will travel to Russia in July and August for training.
• USA said that suspension of F35 program has a set deadline of 31 July, but could occur before then if Turkey takes possession of S400 earlier than that.
• Turkish investments in the F35 program are around $1.2 billion in total, with additional investment expected.

  

Ioannis Michaletos. “Balkan Defense Overview: Developments and Prospects”. Balkanalysis.com, 12 November 2005. https://web.archive.org/web/20070927034601/http://www.balkanalysis.com/?p=612

• Bulgaria also fields two S300 arrays, again part of a legacy from its time in the Warsaw Pact.

 

“India Russia S-400 missile deal: All you need to know”. Times of India, 5 October 2018. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-russia-s-400-missile-deal-all-you-need-to-know/articleshow/66066460.cms

• India plans to purchase the S400, but only announced this deal in October 2018.

 

“Russia confirms sales of S-400 missile systems to Saudi Arabia”. RT, 9 October 2017. https://www.rt.com/business/406116-russia-saudi-arabia-s400-delivery/

• Saudi plans to purchase S400, but this was announced in October 2017, a month after Turkey already signed its own contract with Russia.

  

“Has Algeria Received Russian Anti-Aircraft Missile System S-400?” North Africa Post, 22 July 2015. http://northafricapost.com/8513-has-algeria-received-russian-anti-aircraft-missile-system-s-400.html

• Only country with friendly ties with the USA to get S400 system before Turkey was Algeria, which was the first foreign buyer in 2015.

Lamine Ghanmi. “Algeria seeks to avoid US sanctions over Russian arms purchases”. The Arab weekly, 5 October 2018. https://thearabweekly.com/algeria-seeks-avoid-us-sanctions-over-russian-arms-purchases

• Algeria has been trying to convince the USA not to impose CAATSA sanctions on it in retaliation for its military’s use and purchase of Russian made weapons and equipment.

 

Theodore Karasik. “America’s double standards on S-400 missile system sanctions”. Arab News, 18 October 2018. http://www.arabnews.com/node/1390056

• The USA slapped CAATSA sanctions on China for the purchase of the S400 system.
• India does not operate American made stealth fighters, nor any American made 5th generation aircraft.

 

Franz-Stefan Gady. “US warns India Over S-400 Air Defense System Deal with Russia”. The Diplomat, 17 June 2019. https://thediplomat.com/2019/06/us-warns-india-over-s-400-air-defense-system-deal-with-russia/

• In theory, President Trump has the power to waive CAATSA sanctions under the 2019 NDAA, these waivers have thus far been reserved for older systems costing less than $15 million.
• The USA is still very seriously considering CAATSA sanctions against India.

 

Paul Iddon. “Can Turkey find substitute for F-35?”. Ahval News, 13 June 2019. https://ahvalnews.com/us-turkey/can-turkey-find-substitute-f-35

• Turkey claims they can consider alternatives to the F35, such as Russia’s Su57 fighter or China’s Shenyang J31 fighter. However, the alternatives have not yet reached service.
• The Su57 is also an inferior plane to the F35, lacking much of that aircraft’s stealth tech and its command and control networking functions.
• These purchases would also necessitate buying Russian or Chinese made weapons and parts that, unlike the F35 weapons and parts, are not compatible with the rest of the TAF fleet. Turkey would need to reconfigure its entire air force infrastructure if it bought non US planes.
• Russia should also be nervous about exporting its Su57s, since this could backfire if a pro US leader comes to power in Turkey and uses the aircraft to learn more about how to defeat the Russians.
• The F35 was meant to be the backbone of the Turkish Air Force, with its own Turkish made TFX fighter meant to complement this force and eventually replace the F16.
• The future of the TFX project itself may be in doubt if the USA invokes CAATSA sanctions because it would lose production licenses for some jet parts, including its engine.

  

“Turkey expects first F-35 delivery in 2018, plans more orders”. Reuters, 28 October 2016. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lockheed-fighter-turkey/turkey-expects-first-f-35-delivery-in-2018-plans-more-orders-idUSKCN12S2G1

• There are 11 countries that will operate the F35: the USA, Britain, Australia, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Italy, Turkey, Israel, Japan, and S. Korea.
• Turkey first placed its order for F35s in 2014 for 2 jets, then expanded that to 4 jets in 2015, and 24 additional jets in 2016. It total it plans to purchase 100 F35s.

 

“F-35 project to ‘earn Turkey $12 billion”. Hurriyet, 10 May 2013. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/f-35-project-to-earn-turkey-12-billion-46581

• Over the course of the F35 production project, expected to end in 2039, Turkey expects to earn around $12 billion.

 

“Turkey Approves F-35 Acquisition”. Australian Aviation, 7 May 2014. https://australianaviation.com.au/2014/05/turkey-approves-f-35-acquisition/

• Turkey placed an order for 2 F35 fighter jets on 6 May 2014.
• The plans to manufacture and purchase something like the F35 (a 5th gen aircraft) have been in place in Turkey since 1999 when the TAF recognized the need for a more advanced jet fighter.

  

Burak Ege Bekdil. “Turkey to Order New F-35 Lightning II Jets”. DefenseNews, 31 October 2016. https://www.defensenews.com/air/2016/10/31/turkey-to-order-new-f-35-lightning-ii-jets/ 

• Turkey plans to procure a total of 116 F35s.
• The plan was to have a 5th gen air fleet by 2023, the country’s centennial, composed of F35s and the TFX.

  

“Turkey to be maintenance center for F35”. The Daily Sabah, 13 December 2014. https://www.dailysabah.com/business/2014/12/13/turkey-to-be-maintenance-center-for-f35

• Turkey was designated the maintenance and repair center for the F35 program in Europe by December 2014. This Center was to be established in 2018 in Eskisehir.

 

Burak Bekdil. “Turkey’s fighter aircraft choices: From hard to hardest”. Hurriyet, 30 March 2016. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-fighter-aircraft-choices-from-hard-to-hardest-97049

• Turkey plans to phase out its F16 fleet by 2030 due to high costs of upgrades, repair, and maintenance.
• Quote from TAF general: “We want this program to proceed flawlessly. We cannot afford to face operational weaknesses due to an aging fleet [of F-16s] and delays in two major fighter programs.”

 

“Turkey not in need to US fighter jets”. Yeni Şafak, 21 November 2017. https://www.yenisafak.com/en/economy/turkey-not-in-need-of-us-f-35-fighter-jets-2818837

• At least some portion of the $11.5 billion purchase of the F35 has already been paid.
• US threatened removal of Turkey from F35 program by November 2017.

 

“Made in Turkey’ F-35’lere dünyadan sipariş yağıyor“. Aksam, 24 April 2014. https://www.aksam.com.tr/ekonomi/made-in-turkey-f35lere-dunyadan-siparis-yagiyor/haber-302209

• By 2014, the estimated business involvement of Turkish companies in the production of the F35 was already $7.5.

 

“Turkey: S-400 purchase ‘not a preference but a necessity’. Al Jazeera, 13 July 2019. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/07/turkey-400-purchase-preference-necessity-190713055039155.html

• Second shipment of S400 parts delivered on 13 July 2019.
• The reported cost of CAATSA sanctions against Turkey could be more than $2 billion.
• Turkey argues that the S400 is a strategic necessity due to air threats from across the Syrian border.
• Turkish sovereign rating of Fitch Ratings was downgraded to ‘BB minus’ on 12 July, largely over potential sanctions imposed by the USA.

 

 

“US to impose sanctions on Turkey for purchase of Russian-made S-400 — report”. The Times of Israel, 14 July 2019. https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-to-impose-sanctions-on-turkey-for-purchase-of-russian-made-s-400-report/

• The USA is likely to impose CAATSA sanctions within the next week, while trying to avoid a date that coincides with anniversary of failed 2016 coup.